INSECURITY CUTS BOTH WAYS

August 3, 2024 Opinion

China recently issued a warning that the Philippines is risking ‘greater insecurity for itself’ after the United States through Secretary of State Antony Blinken committed to provide 500 million dollars as financial assistance to help modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) as well as the Philippine Coast Guard. The Beijing Foreign
Ministry then commented through its spokesperson Lin Jian, when asked about the financial aid coming from the
US, that “Trying to introduce external forces to protect its own security will only lead to greater insecurity for itself, and it might even become someone else’s pawn,”.

China must have suddenly realized that the Philippines is now playing a serious game of protecting its territory and
flexing its sovereignty over the West Philippine Sea where contested islands, reefs and shoals can be found. And
because the Philippines fully understands its’ limitations when it comes to defending its territory it has reached out to other nations to establish alliances to shore up its defenses. But in hindsight the only real reason China is warning
the Philippines about the US investment of 500 million dollars is its apprehension that the money will be used to further modernize and fortify the 9 sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) established
between the US and the Philippines.

The 500 million dollars or more than 29 billion pesos will certainly go a long way towards augmenting efforts to further modernize the AFP and the coast guard, but as well, a portion of that money will definitely go towards the
improvement of the defensive and offensive capabilities of the 9 EDCA sites. It must be remembered that these EDCA sites are Philippine military bases and their continuing upgrade will only greatly help US and Philippine forces in the event of a contingency, such as if China will finally invade Taiwan or a part of the Philippines (probably Palawan) to finally make good its intention of unbridled expansion in Southeast Asia.

If you want to delve a little deeper on the current situation of the 9 EDCA sites in the country go to this link (https://
amti.csis.org/more-than meets-the-eye-Philippine upgrades-at-edca-sites/ So there it is. It is actually China that will experience the insecurity once the 500 million dollars will be spent on the AFP, the Coast Guard and the 9 EDCA sites. This will make it doubly difficult for China to push through with its plan to finally invade Taiwan, actually
it is just a question of when China will invade the Republic of Taiwan since they have already declared that they will
get back Taiwan which they only consider as one of their provinces.

Now that the US has become a close friend once more of the Philippines and has begun to preposition its forces and war material at the northern shores of the Philippines which is practically a stone’s throw from Taiwan, China would be hard pressed to immediately invade Taiwan knowing that the US, which has committed to defend the latter, is up and ready just right around the corner. In retrospect it is actually China which compelled the Philippines to seek out alliances with the US and other countries sharing the same concerns and it will only be a matter of time when a sufficient deterrent will be put up to prevent China from making any further aggression in the West Philippine Sea.

Had China not proclaimed its nine dash line (now it has become the ten dash line) in the South China Sea and started occupying and fortifying shoals and reefs near the Philippines, as well as harassing Filipino fishermen, or its declaration that it will get back Taiwan, then probably the Philippines would not be enjoying a “once in a generation
investment” of 500 million pesos from the US. As it stands insecurity cuts both ways, if the Philippines is risking insecurity by accepting the financial assistance from the US then China should definitely experience more or greater
insecurity knowing that its plans for Taiwan and the Western Philippine sea are being thwarted by cooperative alliances.