A LITTLE TOO LATE TO PLAY BALL

October 12, 2024 Opinion

The President of the Republic of the Philippines Ferdinand ‘Bong Bong’ Marcos Jr. is in Vietnam attending the 27th
Asean-China Summit and was able to urge the member states of the Asean to fast-track the Asean-China Code of Conduct (CoC) to regulate and address concerns over the disputed waters of the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) as well as the competing and overlapping claims of other states in that part of the region. The concern however is whether China, and perhaps even some of the other claimant states are still willing to play ball and enact a CoC to promote stability in the South China Sea.

There are some who might say that it is a little too late in the day for China to even consider acquiescing to whatever will be written down in the said CoC since it does not even recognize the arbitration ruling issued by the Hague Tribunal that recognized the sovereignty of the Philippines over its 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) over and against the territorial and marital claim of China over the same area in the South China Sea. That China will absolutely never recognize any law whether national or international that would diminish its claim over much of
the South China Sea – its nine-dash line, reclamation activities, putting up military stations and outposts on shoals and reefs it has reclaimed, and creeping expansion and intrusion of its coast guard and militia ships and boats over large swaths of the South China Sea.

Just very recently reports have again been received that Philippine civilian boats on a resupply mission to the Bajo De Masinloc shoal supervised by the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources was water cannoned by Chinese Coast Guard vessels but apparently failed to reach the Philippine boats. Not only that but Vietnam which is another claimant state recently reported an incident where ten of their fishermen were beaten allegedly by officers from China’s Maritime Safety Administration near the Paracel Islands while they were fishing in the area.

According to the account two vessels from the China Maritime Safety Administration from the Sansha City United Law Enforcement Unit encircled the civilian boat of the Vietnamese fishermen and which was then boarded by
around 40 Chinese officers who administered physical beatings to the said fishermen which severely injured 4 of them. After beating the Vietnamese fishermen the said Chinese officers then allegedly ransacked the Vietnamese
vessel before letting the Vietnamese crew depart from the area.

These are very clear and obvious acts of aggression from China which shows that they are now unwilling to
observe any rules-based conduct in the South China Sea except that of protecting their own selfish interests and
further advancing their plan to fully dominate and occupy what they claim is their rightful territory. So even if President Marcos can convince the other member states of the Asean to get their act together and somehow find a way to facilitate the immediate establishment of a CoC in the South China Sea it might already be impossible to
persuade China to obey said rules since that would be anathema to their planned expansion.

As such perhaps the only remedy available to the Philippines and the other claimant states is to band together, along with their allies, and urge or coerce China to observe the CoC to be enacted under pain of severe sanctions by all concerned states and even their allies. This may be the only recourse left to force China to observe the rule of law.
However, to band together as allies, if that is the apt term to use, is to make sure that all involved states must be fully
aware of any and all consequences of such united front considering that such display of unity with regard to the issue of the South China Sea might not sit well with China, being an economic and military power.

At the extreme China might think that its plan of expansion in the Asian region is being forcefully thwarted by the member states of Asean and will act accordingly and precipitously to the detriment of said member states. It is also
vital that the United Nations will somehow back the play of the member states of the Asean in this matter to prevent any further escalation of conflict with China if and when push comes to shove. Finally, before President Marcos leaves Vietnam may be he will need to ask whether the other member states of the Asean are willing to take that
radical step towards preventing China from further acting as the bully in this part of the region.

If these member states are too timid then the Philippines must be prepared to act alone and counting on the backing of its allies which at the latest count already includes apart from the US, Japan, the UK, Australia and Canada. China is already unwilling to play ball that much is obvious, the question is how will the Philippines move forward to contain the bully of Asia?