The Disillusionment and Disappointment Factor
A recent statement made to the media by Anakalusugan Party-list Rep. Mike Defensor claims that for all intents and purposes, basing on recent survey results, it is all but game over for the presidential race as the frontrunner, who presumably can no longer be overtaken as far as surveys are concerned, will surely emerge as the winner.
That statement of Defensor relies on the latest Pulse Asia survey result which bared that the presidential frontrunner, Bong-Bong Marcos, despite losing four percentage points in the latest poll still enjoys an impressive 56 percent voter preference from his nearest competitor Vice President Leni Robredo who, despite having gained nine percentage points, can only muster a 24 percent voter preference.
The survey was conducted from March 17 to 21, 2022 with a margin of error of +/- 2%.
However, a more compelling statement was made by Dr. Ana Tabunda, the Research Director of Pulse Asia, who explained in an interview by ANC Digital, that the drop of four percentage points in the overall voter preference percentage of the presidential frontrunner Bong-Bong Marcos is not that significant in terms of affecting the overall survey situation where he has consistently led.
On the other hand when the question was raised whether the nine percentage points gained by Vice President Leni Robredo, which is seen as a trend, is an indication that with over a month to go before the elections she will be able to catch up statistically with the frontrunner, Dr. Tabunda replied in the negative pointing out that the gain is small and the increase is not enough.
She explained that in order for the Vice President to catch up with the former Senator the latter should suffer larger declines in his percentage of voter preference while the former should obtain larger increases in her voter preference.
Statistically for Leni to arrive at a tie with Bong-Bong she would have to gain 16 points while the latter should lose 16 points, all in a little over a month before the elections. (https://w w w . y o u t u b e . c o m /watch?v=qUDmGbq4oRQ) Given the situation presented by Dr. Tabunda of Pulse Asia, one wonders how the other presidential candidates will attempt to overtake the very wide lead now being enjoyed by the presidential frontrunner, at least in the surveys.
For the presidential candidate running second in the surveys it is very likely that they are now in the thick of things madly entertaining all sorts of ideas on how to gain 16 more points in voter preference while also praying that somehow a miracle will happen that will cause the frontrunner to lose an equivalent 16 points in voter preference all in a span of a little over a month so that statistically they will at least be tied at the top.
Of course for presidential candidate Leni Robredo gaining 16 more points in just over a month should have been quite easy since as the Vice President, she could simply repeat her previous claims of numerous success stories as the second highest public official of the land.
With a little less than six years in office as Vice President she could point out that during her executive foray she had done so much for the Filipino people and it is only natural that they allow her to continue her service to the public and to the nation.
In fact she would have no need to point out her accomplishments as the Vice President because surely all of these would have been on record and officially documented. She would just tell the voters that these are her accomplishments during her vice presidency and they would
eagerly flock to her side and support her candidacy as president.
But if her present predicament, still lagging quite far behind the presidential frontrunner, is any indication, then surely she would already have come to the realization that somehow she has failed the public in their expectations of her as the Vice President of the country.
The specter of disappointment looms large to those she had apparently failed to serve and are now supporting another candidate who might provide them with better service. Otherwise if she had been an effective and successful leader for this past several years then those
who voted for her ( 14,418,817 with a 35.11 percentage) during the last election should have seen an additional increase in numbers and reflected in her current percentage of voter preference. Sadly that is not the case.
Another factor that she has to contend with is the apparent disillusionment of those willing to be considered and identified as the opposition. For much of the campaign the opposition led by various groups have not really unified and coalesced into a formidable anti-administration
party that could be utilized by the Vice President as a vehicle to drum up support from the voters.
This is blatantly revealed by reports that the Vice President and her camp is being enticed to forged a partnership with the leading vice presidential candidate Sarah Duterte in the hope that her numbers will increase.
This begs the question as to who really initiated this political skullduggery, certainly not from the camp of Sarah Duterte who is enjoying, from a golfing standpoint, being at the top of the leaderboard along with her presidential candidate.
So obviously the groups who thought up the inane idea must have come from the opposition camp in their desperate attempt to salvage the bleak situation their presidential candidate has found herself.
It is not rocket science to realize that the fragmented opposition no longer comprehends where they really stand and what they are fighting for politically, having lost all sense of direction, and thus have greatly contributed to the diminished popularity of the Vice President with the voters.
Nothing short of a miracle is needed by the Vice President if she has any chance of gaining the upper hand in the presidential race. Unfortunately it would appear that the miracle she is praying for has already happened and has landed squarely in the camp of the leading presidential candidate.
Bangungot sa Holy Week
April 10, 2022
