The center of the eye of Typhoon EGAY was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 310 km East Tuguegarao City, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 230 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 10 km/h. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 680 km from the center.
TROPICAL WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3 The northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Santa Marcela, Flora, and Pudtol)
TCWS No. 2 The rest of Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, The northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Kibungan),
TCWS No. 1 The rest of Benguet
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK Forecast accumulated rainfall today Above 200 mm: Apayao 100-200 mm: Abra, the western portions of Kalinga, and Apayao 50-100 mm: Benguet, the western portions of Kalinga and Mountain Province, and the Rest of Apayao Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow Above 200 mm: The Northern portions of Abra 100-200 mm: The northern portion of Apayao and the rest of Abra 50-100 mm: Benguet, the western portion of Kalinga and Mountain Province, and the rest of Apayao Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas.
Under these conditions, flooding and rain induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days. The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by EGAY will continue to bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days.
SEVERE WINDS Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK EGAY is forecast to move northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning generally west northwestward and cross the Luzon Strait. On the track forecast, it is forecast to make landfall or pass very close to Babuyan Islands northeastern mainland Cagayan area between late evening today and tomorrow afternoon. Slight northward or southward shift in this segment of the track (but within the forecast confidence cone) may result in a landfall or close approach over northern mainland Cagayan or Batanes.
After passing the Babuyan Islands, EGAY will turn northwestward or north northwestward and pass over the waters south of Taiwan. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday morning. Outside the PAR region, EGAY will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall in the vicinity of Fujian, China on Friday morning. EGAY is nearing its peak intensity. A short window of high favorable environment in the near term will allow it to either maintain its intensity in the next 12 hour or slightly intensify.
Afterwards, a weakening trend may begin due to increasing interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon and Taiwan. Further weakening is expected outside the PAR region due to increasingly unfavorable environment and the eventual landfall over the landmass of China. Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property.
Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Source: DOST – PAGASA
September 23, 2023
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